Trends+in+Voting

= Trends in Voting =

** Introduction **
The citizens who go to the polls and vote help decide the very outcome of elections. Every person who casts a vote has been influenced by one thing or another. The influences can be anything from the way a person was raised to the education they received. Different people fall into different demographic categories and many trends in voting have been observed among these demographic categories.

** Party Identification **
Party identification is regarded as the most powerful influence over voting and is highly influenced by political socialization. This influence is quite apparent in elections where voters have very little knowledge on the candidates running and they base their votes off of party affiliation. In 2008 approximately 89 percent of self-identified Democrats voted for Barrack Obama and 90 percent self-identified Republicans voted for John McCain. Over the past few years it has been noted that more and more voters have been practicing **ticket-splitting** which is voting for candidates of different parties in the same election. Experts believe that people do this in order to prevent one party from gaining complete control because they do not trust them to hold all of the power. This indicates that voters are aware of the differences between the two major political parties and they do this in order to improve the system of checks and balances that are already in the Constitution.



** Ideology **
Political ideology is another major influence on the voting trends of Americans. Conservatives are generally dedicated to promoting the individual and market-based competition. They tend to see government as a necessary evil and they feel that it should have as little involvement as possible. Liberals favor big government and government involvement in social programs. They are committed to the ideas of tolerance and social justice. Moderates lie in between conservatives and liberals. These people have ideas rooted in both Conservative and Liberal ideologies. Liberals tend to vote for Democrats and conservatives usually vote for Republicans.

** Income and Education **
Income is a very reliable way to predict how a person will vote. The lower income tend to vote Democratic and the people with a higher income tend to vote Republican. In the 2008 election the majority of people who made less than $50,000 each year supported Obama. Over all McCain had the support from the majority of the rich and upper middle-class. There is a notable correlation between income and education because those with a higher education tend to make more money. The most educated and the least educated usually vote Democrat while almost everyone in between votes Republican.

** Race and Ethnicity **
Different races have distinct political affiliations. By looking at exit poll data one can see that blacks are distinctly democratic voting at rates of 85% and higher for the democratic candidate with 95% of them voting for Obama in 2008. Blacks are by far the most partisan and consistent in voting for and aligning with a specific party. Hispanics also generally vote democratic though not to the same extents that blacks do. During the last 3 presidential elections, Hispanics have voted around 60% democratic. By observing exit polls, we see Asians to be the least partisan with only slight democratic leanings. Whites are the only race to vote consistently republican even during the 2008 presidential election 56% of whites voted McCain.

** Gender **
Looking at exit poll data it can be observed that women tend to lean towards the democrats and men tend to lean towards the republicans. These lines, however, are not nearly as strong as race or religious lines. Despite conservative leanings a black male is much more likely to vote democratic and a white woman is more likely to vote republican. Overall, although lines between genders can be observed they do not play a huge role in determining the party someone will belong to.

** Religion **
89% of Americans consider themselves to be religious. At 90% of these Americans, Christians are the largest voting bloc. Methodists, Presbyterians, Episcopalians tend to lean Republican, while Catholics usually support Democrats. In recent years, however, more liberal Protestant groups have started to move Democratic, while Republicans have been gaining Catholic voters. Religious minorities, such as Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, and unaffiliated voters are more democratic. Jews are heavily democratic, especially since World War II, when President Roosevelt and the Democrats pushed against the more isolationist Republicans to ally the USA with the British and Russians against anti-Semitic Nazi-Germany. In 2008, 78% of Jewish voters voted for Barack Obama. Catholics are commonly thought of as a swing group. In 2004, 52% of Catholics voted to re-elect President Bush, but 54% voted for Senator Obama in 2008.

** Issues **
Issues are the biggest decider for non-partisan voters. The voters who solely use issues to make their decision do this is two different ways. The first method is **Retrospective judgment**. This is when a voter makes his or her decision by looking at the past performance of the party or person in power. Unofficially referred to as a referendum, this type of judgment played a heavy role in 2006 and 2008, when Republicans took heavy losses at the polls because of the Iraq War, or in 2002, when Republicans capitalized off of the wave of patriotism after 9/11. **Prospective Judgment** is another way a voter can make his or her decision. This happens when a voter decides between candidates based on promises and what they pledge to do if elected. This type of judgment decision also played a heavy role in 2008. Barack Obama received 66% of the vote of those voters who were concerned about rising healthcare costs because of his promise to reform the healthcare system.

** Vocabulary Terms **
Ticket-splitting: Voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election. Partisan: Prejudiced in favor of a particular cause (or party) Retrospective Judgment: when voters are voting based on past performance of the party in power, essentially a referendum Prospective Judgement: when voters are voting based on what a candidate promises to do if elected

** Section Review: Multiple Choice **
1. The most powerful predictor of vote choice is a. age. b. party identification. c.gender. d. race.

2. Ticket-splitting is best described as a. voting for candidates of the same party for various offices in the same election. b. voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in a different election. c. voting for candidates of different parties for the same offices in the same election. d. voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election.

3. Which describes political trends regarding gender most accurately a. women vote strongly republican b. men vote strongly republican c. women vote slightly more democratic d. women vote mostly third party

4. The most **partisan** racial-demographic are a. Hispanics b. Whites c. Blacks d. Asians

** Section Review: Essay **
1. Explain why more and more people have been splitting their tickets in recent years. 2. Which of the factors listed above do you think has had the greatest affect on you? Why?

** See Also: **
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Voting trends utilized in the upcoming election: [| http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-usa-campaign-whites-idUSBRE89A07C20121011] Upcoming election splits by religion: [| http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/09/update-obama-vs-romney-by-religious.html]
 * Current news: **

** Works Cited: **
//Americans' Views of Obama More Polarized as Election Nears //. Digital image. //Americans' Views of Obama More Polarized as Election Nears //. Gallup, 12 Oct. 2012. Web. 14 Oct. 2012. .

O'Connor, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra B. Yanus. "Political Parties." //American Government: Roots and Reform//. Boston: Longman, 2011. 407-09. Print.

O'Connor, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra B. Yanus. "Elections and Voting." //American Government: Roots and Reform//. Boston: Longman, 2011. 433-440. Print.

"Summary of Key Findings." //Statistics on Religion in America Report//. N.p., n.d. Web. 14 Oct. 2012. .