Problems+with+Polling

by Rebecca Chen (editor), Lauren Fountain, Rachel Feldman

Problems with polling can be broken down into the following six components:

1. **Public opinion polls are snapshots of opinion and preferences of people at a specific moment.** When a __public opinion poll__ is taken, the citizens responding to the poll give the answer they agree with at that time. People’s opinions change all the time on any topic so the validity of polls only last a certain amount of time because people change their opinions too frequently. Between the time the poll is taken and by the time it is published, a good amount of people who participated could have changed their opinion. With __public opinion__ constantly changing, another factor is added into the __margin of error__. This can also add to the fact that certain polls have the same question but have different results.

2. **Sampling error-polls: May report erroneous results because pool of respondents was not chosen in a specific manner.**

It is impossible for every single American to answer poll questions, meaning that it is crucial for __pollsters__ to select people in a manner that can portray accurate results. Small samples can be accurate if everyone has an equal opportunity to be sampled. However, poor and homeless people are not often sampled because not enough effort is made to ensure that they are sampled in mind.

3. **Unscientific mail-in polls, telephone call-in polls, and polls completed by workers in a campaign are usually biased.**

As technology progressed and more households started acquiring landline telephones, pollsters took advantage and began calling and conducting polls to a broader population. Initially, many participants were enthusiastic about pollsters asking about their opinion and views on political issues. However, as more people are using cellphones and are unwilling to answer questions, it is difficult to get scientific data from the public. Results of the public that actually participated are usually altered to ensure the sample accurately reflects the demographic opinions and values of the actual population. Sometimes, mail-in polls are conducted as well. These type of polls may be unscientific because the majority of the public do not want to participate because they claim they do not have enough time or that they are too lazy. For the few people that actually participated, their results also might be changed in order to accurately describe the demographic factors. Moreover, polls conducted by a worker in a campaign are usually biased. Therefore, the pollster may persuade the participant by giving out false information about the opponent, also known as __push polls__.

4. **When poll changes its method from reporting views of eligible voters.**

There is a huge difference in the outcome of polls if for instance, one campaign uses the opinions of everyone and the other campaign uses the opinions of eligible voters. A poll that surveyed eligible and ineligible voters will not accurately reflect the outcome of voters who are actually eligible to vote. On the other hand, if a poll includes the position of citizens who are actually legal to vote, the polls gives a more accurate portrayal of what the likely outcome would be at that specific time.

5. ** Results will depend on questions asked - answers are influenced by the order. ** There is a great deal of thought and effort put into creating questions to be asked in polls or surveys. First pollsters must consider how to word questions in a way that will seem more neutral to the reader to avoid influencing the answer choices they select. When a question is worded using powerful words and phrases the respondent can easily pick out which answer choice relates to what they feel is their stance on the given topic or issue. This can also relate to the answer choices given. Not everyone has extreme stances on every single subject, and the answer choices should give the option for respondents to choose a more neutral answer closer to their honest feelings. Unfortunately some polls will only allow a 'yes' or 'no' answer, which is not accurate in measuring the accurate public opinon. On the other hand, there are questions that give too many choices which make the process too lengthy which defeats the point of timely answers.



6. **Push Polls: those in which respondents are giving misleading information to vote against a candidate.**

__Push Polls__ are used to persuade the public to vote for a specific candidate. The campaign or even the interest groups may call, mail, or use the internet to survey the public. Those willing to voluntarily participate in the push poll may be influenced. Push polls are however, very misleading and can give out false information about the opposing candidates. There was an instance during the 2000 Republican presidential primary, when George Bush’s campaign surveyed the citizens of South Carolina asking if they would more or likely to vote for John McCain if they knew he fathered an illegitimate black child, which he did not.



__** Vocabulary Words **__

__Margin of error:__ a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll.

__Public opinion poll__: Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population.

__Public opinion__: What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time.

__Pollster__: A campaign consultant who conducts public opinion surveys.

__Push Polls__: Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would respondents to vote against a candidate.

__** Quiz **__

1) Polls are only preferences of citizens at _ time.

2) Some polls include people who are not eligible to.

3) A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion is called.

a) Margin of error b) push polls c) public opinion d) pollsters

4) What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time is called.

a) margin of error b) push polls c) public opinion d) pollsters

5) TRUE / FALSE

If a poll only includes people who are eligible to vote, the results of the poll will more accurately reflect the outcome of the actual vote (if taken at that specific time)

6) TRUE / FALSE

Public opinion is constantly changing all the time.

7) Why are mail-in polls and telephone call-in polls unscientific?


 * __ Works Cited __**

Heintz, Paul. "Seven Days: Vermont's Independent Voice." Poll Dance. Seven Days, 1 Aug. 2012. Web. 16 Oct. 2012. .

Killian, Joe. "Voters Getting 'Push Poll' Calls." News & Record. News-Record, 25 July 2012. Web. 16 Oct. 2012. .

O'Connor, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra B. Yanus. "Public Opinion and Political Socialization." // American Government: Roots and Reform //. Boston: Longman, 2011. 369-373. Print.