Voting+Behavior

=Voting Behavior =

From the beginning of voting the behavior of those at the polls has been an aspect of the elections that was greatly looked at. People have always been interested in viewing which way people of specific groups voted and why. Exit polls have been used to gain data as to which candidate a person voted for and dividing their vote into categories, including, race, gender, religion, etc. Although it is not possible to always correctly predict the outcome of elections, voting behavior has helped predict the outcome of specific voting groups. In cases such as the 1964 election, voting behavior was not able to help predict the elections as __Reagan Democrats__, a group of voters who remained democrats while voting for Reagan in the 1964 election, swayed the results. It is, however, possible to use voting behavior to look at which groups these voters belonged to and why they voted in such a fashion.


 * Religion **

Exit polls are often divided into religion to help gain a better understanding for which way religious groups tend to vote. It is often found that the majority of Protestant voters vote Republican and the majority of Catholic, Jewish, other faiths, and unaffiliated voters tend to vote Democratically. This can be seen in the 2008 elections with 54% of Protestant voters voting for McCain, the Republican candidate, 54% Catholic, 78% Jewish, 73% other faiths, and 75% unaffiliated voters voting for Obama, the Democratic candidate. This can been seen in the charts below.

 Voting Behavior by Religion 2000-2008 Presidential Elections Detailed Voting Behavior by Religion 2008 Presidential Election


 * Race **

It has been found when looking at voting behaviors that most voters that are minorities, such as Hispanic or African American, tend to lean towards Democratic candidates. White voters, on the other hand, are often found to vote for the Republican candidate. This can be found by looking at the 2008 election, 67% Hispanic and 95% African American voters voted for Obama, the Democratic candidate while 55% of white voters voted for McCain, the Republican candidate.

Voting Behavior By Race 2008 Presidential Election


 * Age **

While today only about 50% of those ages 18-24 vote, most people under the age of 30 vote Democratically. Age plays a large factor into the voting behavior of people, as most voters are affected by their __pre-adult socialization__, the affect of family, friends, religion, and other factors on a person that affect their political outlook before they are 18. More and more voters between 18-24 tend to vote Democratically for reason that they take a more liberal stance and worry about the creation of jobs in their future. Most people between the ages of 30-60 tend to vote Democratically, however, the number of Republican voters in this age group is close behind. Voters above the age of 60 tend to be Republicans, this is a result of them living through the Great Depression and various wars. These voter turn outs can be seen in the 2008 election with 66% of voters under 30 voting for Obama, the Democratic candidate, and 50% of voters 30 and above voting also voting for Obama. This is shown in the chart below.

Voting Behavior by Age 2008 Election

 Due to party platforms, men and women tend to vote for separate candidates. The majority of women tend to lean towards the Democratic candidate, having more liberal values than men, who, today, tend to vote for the Republican candidate. Over time this stance has changed from the original stance, however. In 1952, most women and men identified themselves as Democrats, voting for the Democratic candidate. Over time, however, as the women remained mostly Democratic, men became more and more Republican, thus majority become Republican in 1988 and 1996. The gap between the number of Democratic and Republican men continues to close, both getting close to 45%.
 * Gender **

 Voting Behavior Among Women Voting Behavior Among Men

Family Income
The amount of money one and their family makes definitely affects their voting behavior and their party affiliation. It is common knowledge that the rich families of American tend to have more conservative views that lean towards the Republican candidates. And middle and lower-class Americans lean towards the Democratic values and candidates. As you can see in the diagram, the lower three of the five sections voted mostly Democratic and the higher two sections voted Republican. In 2000 and 2004, both years where Republican candidate George W. Bush was victorious All Democratic affiliations grew in the 2008 election which resulted in Barack Obama becoming the 44th President of the United States. Party Affiliations by Income for 2000-2009

= Voting Behavior: Voter Turno ut =

Many things affect voting behavior but something that affects the behavior is the actual presence of the voter. Voter turnout is the amount or percentage of eligible voters, over the age of 18, that actually voted on Election Day. This issue is "turning out" to be extremely important in the elections nowadays. As voting behavior seems to somewhat change every election, so does voter turnout. Although, in 2008, there were a little over 230,000,000 eligible voters, only 61.6 percent of them came out to vote, about 132,600,000 people. Even though the statistics of the 2012 election are not finalized, an estimated 126,000,000 people came out to vote, about 57.5 percent voter turnout which is considerably lower than last election.

Vocabulary:

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">__pre-adult socialization__: the affect of family, friends, religion, and other factors on a person that affect their political outlook before they are 18

__<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px;">Reagan Democrats __:<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px;"> a group of voters who remained democrats while voting for Reagan in the 1964 election, mostly white, ethnic, blue collar, Northerners

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px;">Section Review:

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px;">1. About what percent of people between the ages 18-24 vote today? <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">a. 25% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">b. 40% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">c. 50% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">d. 65%

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">2. True or False: Looking at voting behavior will always correctly help predict the election.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px;">3. True or False: Most women tend to vote Republican, as they value more conservative ways of life.

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">4. Middle and lower-class Americans often vote a ____________ candidate for President. <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">a. Republican <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">b. Independent <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">c. Democrat <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">d. Green Party

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">5. What was the difference in voter turnout in the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections? <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">a. + 4% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">b <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">. + 10% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">c. - 4% <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 120%;">d. - 10 %

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 17px;">News Articles:

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<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">Sources:

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS125/PowerPoint/parties6.pps <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;">[] <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 130%;"> []